2024 UCF Football: My Thoughts on the Disastrous Start
A Season Filled With Promise Has Quickly Spiraled Out of Control
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
Close your eyes and think about how you envisioned this season going 6 weeks into the year.
A dominant KJ Jefferson.
Probably a 5-1 start with a massive bragging rights win over in-state rival Florida.
A Top 25 ranking.
In the thick of the Big 12 title race.
Now, come back to reality.
Quite literally, none of that has happened.
Instead, UCF Football is 3-3, got destroyed in their 2 biggest games of the season so far, KJ Jefferson has been benched for poor play, and the team’s Big 12 title hopes are all but dead.
It’s dark times in UCF Nation currently and the light at the end of the tunnel seems so far away, so incomprehensible right now. Knowing that the season, only 6 games in, is already a lost cause is sad, frustrating and hopeless.
How did this happen? How did a season full of promise go awry so quickly?
A Multitude of Issues
It’s quite easy to look at UCF’s season and quickly point your finger at head coach Gus Malzahn.
Social media has skewered him over the past month.
After all, he is the architect of the program, the leader of the offense, the one calling the plays, the person who is hand picking the coaching staff and recruiting all these players.
It of course starts with Malzahn, but he is far from the only problem on this team.
UCF has been plagued by a long list of issues this season:
Poor play calling
An offense that can’t move the ball because it’s one dimensional
A QB controversy with no clear cut answer about who is the best option under center.
A subpar offensive line that has little to no depth
An over the hill Defensive Coordinator
A defense that is significantly less deep than we expected.
Key injuries on defense, including John Walker and Demari Henderson
An extremely inefficient red zone offense that ranks in the bottom 2 in the country.
A defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs.
A defense that can’t get any pass rush going and ranks toward the bottom of the country in sacks.
Do I need to keep going?
The worst part of this is I don’t think anyone expected all of these issues, especially the coaching staff.
This whole season and all changes made in the offseason were geared to make UCF a competitor in the Big 12 this year.
But, the whole experiment has fallen flat on its face.
And it all came to a head this past weekend against Cincinnati. UCF finally made the changes the fan base had been calling for. The Knights replaced KJ Jefferson with freshman EJ Colson, a message that resonates with young players that they can get playing time, and shows UCF is finally willing to develop some of these stud recruits.
Backup Jacurri Brown ended up getting most of the snaps in the game, but at least it was a change.
UCF ended up losing the game still, 19-13, with another abysmal offensive performance and any remaining support for Malzahn probably evaporated especially against a team that’s considered on our level.
It became clear.
UCF looks lost; it lacks an identity and the leadership has failed.
However, the point of this expose isn’t to beat a dead horse or rehash the same things that have been regurgitated on Twitter for weeks now, but more so to talk about the state of the program as a whole and how this season has impacted the program.
The State of the Program
Some UCF fans have suggested this season has caused irreparable damage to the program and its standing in the national spotlight.
People have said it has set us back years and that all the brand equity we built over the past decade has been wiped clean by Malzahn and his lack of success here.
I think some of that narrative is a little extreme.
In my opinion, sports, especially college football is cyclical.
Programs are up, then they’re down, then they’re up again.
All of the blue bloods have gone through inconsistency, whether it’s Georgia, Clemson, Florida or Florida State.
UCF isn’t immune to bad seasons.
The difference now is we have massive expectations and Malzahn lit a fire to those expectations with all his preseason “We’re a Big 12 contender talk.”
But, let’s look at the facts.
UCF has the 2nd lowest NIL budget in the Big 12
They only have 1 recruiting class while being a member of the Big 12
They aren’t able to get land the best transfers on the market
They are not as deep at really any position, especially on the lines, as most Power 4 programs.
They are not viewed by recruits or transfers as top tier program or destination.
The resources as of now just don’t compare to probably 90% of other P4 programs.
I know what you are thinking - EXCUSES!!!
“Look at SMU.”
“Look at BYU.”
They are in Year 1 and Year 2 in the P4 respectively and are crushing it!
I get it. I get it.
However, BYU and SMU have been around for decades and have always had a bigger donor base and more resources than we have.
Also, I question if we really do have a lot of talent on this team? Is there talent? Absolutely? Are we as deep as we think or thought we were? I am not so sure. The team is full of transfers who transferred for a reason. The young guys who are 4-stars haven’t been developed so can you expect them to be stars right away? Outside of a few starters on each side of the ball, how talented is this team really?
I always thought this team was only marginally better than last year’s team. But, UCF has always been able to more with less and maximize the talent it does have. This may be the most talented team UCF has ever had on paper, but I still don’t think it’s comparable from top to bottom as most Big 12 teams. It’s on par talent wise when you look at most of the starters, but the 2-deep? I still don’t think it’s that special yet.
Still, I get it. I am not making excuses for Malzahn, because:
It doesn’t change the way we’ve lost these games - lifeless, listless performances - which has been a major gripe from the fan base.
It doesn’t change that we were more competitive in Year 1 in the Big 12 than we have been so far in Year 2.
It doesn’t change that this is no longer a 1-season sample size under Malzahn, but 3 + years, where he has seemed to fail in the biggest moments. It doesn’t change that a lot of these problems existed when we were still in the AAC.
It doesn’t change that he’s made poor coaching hires, poor coaching decisions and had poor play calling.
It doesn’t change that he’s stuck with guys that are playing bad and failed to play all these “Booms” who were highly recruited. It doesn’t change that he’s failed to develop any young talent. It doesn’t change that Malzahn has failed to maximize the talent we do have.
Most of all, it doesn’t change that he’s overpromised and underdelivered.
I’ve been very vocal that I think a change is needed and I’m very uncertain that Malzahn can be the guy that can bring us to the next level. I want change, whether it’s a new coaching staff or Malzahn being completely stripped of play calling duties.
I still believe that.
I just don’t think that Malzahn has ruined UCF’s program and all the progress we made in the last decade.
Those undefeated seasons and conference titles still are etched in our history books.
The Peach Bowl win is never going away.
The work we did to be recognized in the national spotlight doesn’t just go away. Sure, we may be forgotten for now, but relevance is a fleeting feeling, whether you’re super relevant or irrelevant.
All it really takes is one winning season, one special season to get that spotlight back.
Hell, if UCF ran the table this year and made the college football playoff (it’s not going to happen), I am pretty sure we would be nationally relevant.
The point is everything in sports is fleeting. You’re only good as your last championship, your last game.
Of course, it sucks the way we are trending right now. Everything is looking down with no escape route. Malzahn isn’t getting fired due to a massive $12 million buyout. We may stuck in this situation for a few more years.
We may lose more games. We may become a bottom feeder in the Big 12. But that only lasts until it doesn’t.
The notion that we can never recover from this is laughable in my opinion. I’ve seen an 0-12 laughing stock program turn into an undefeated, nationally relevant team in the span of 2 years.
Sure, the competition is harder. The game of college football has dramatically changed. But, I don’t see why UCF couldn’t rebound from this sometime in the near future. It would take the right coaching staff and the right AD to make it happen, which obviously won’t happen this year or next year, but don’t ever forget UCF is still a highly attractive job and program.
The problem is we as a fanbase want it right now!
We don’t want to be the sleeping giant anymore. We want to be the awake giant and continue on the trajectory of becoming a national power. We want the vision that we all have of this program ever since we saw it’s potential to come into fruition.
I am not going to preach patience. I am not going to defend what’s happened.
All I am going to say is that you shouldn’t lose faith in the program.
Lose faith in Malzahn. Lose faith in the 2024 team. Lose faith in Terry Mohajir.
But don’t lose faith in the UCF Football program because you and I should still believe in that potential, still believe that the program wants to fulfill its destiny of moving up the college football ranks and becoming a consistent, national power.
I still believe it can happen because I still have faith in the program.
You should too.
So, What’s Next?
UCF will likely finish this season around the bottom of the Big 12. It’s very hard to even see one more win on this schedule.
There will probably be some miracle or fluky win as is the case with Gus Malzahn teams. UCF likely finishes in the 4-5 win range and misses out on a bowl game.
And yes, Malzahn deserves a ton of blame for that, especially with how much he hyped up this season and with how he mismanaged the talent on this team.
But, I want to point out a couple of key relevant stats.
When TCU moved up from the Mountain West to the Big 12 in 2012, they went 7-6 in their first year.
In year 2? They went 4-8 overall and 2-7 in conference play. They also recorded a 1-3 home record that year.
How about the next season? They ripped off a 12-1 record, won the Big 12 and crushed Ole Miss 42-3 in the Peach Bowl.
How about Utah?
They went 8-5 in Year 1 in the Pac12 after transitioning over from the Mountain West.
In Year 2? The Utes finished 5-7 overall and 3-6 in conference play. 5 of those 6 conference losses were by double digits.
They went 5-7 again in Year 3, before ripping off 3 consecutive seasons of at least 9 wins.
The point is everything takes time.
I know college football has changed and it’s all about who has the most money now.
But, don’t forget, UCF will get a full Big 12 payout in 2 years and have a massive jump in resources.
That doesn’t mean we should remain idle and just accept sucking.
I still firmly believe we have hit a ceiling under Gus Malzahn and that he is past his prime. I believe he is unwilling or unable to make the necessary changes to succeed.
I believe we need a different staff and administration to reach our potential.
I also believe we need to catch up in resources and have more recruiting cycles as a Big 12 team before that can happen.
I am advocating for change and my belief in Gus Malzahn has deteriorated. But I still think we need time and I still believe we can and will get to where we want to go. It may be 3, 4 or even 5 years away, but I believe.
Because, I have faith in the program.
You should too.
Great perspective, thanks for talking me off the cliff. What are your thoughts on what you saw out of Jacurri?